CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten has recently made some observations regarding the Democratic Party’s prospects for the 2026 midterm elections, suggesting a challenging environment for them.
Enten’s analysis, as of mid-July 2025, indicates that Democrats are “behind their 2006 and 2018 paces” when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. He notes that while Democrats currently hold a lead, it’s only by two points, which is significantly less than the seven-point lead they held at similar points in 2005 and 2017 (the years preceding the 2006 and 2018 midterm wave elections, respectively).
Furthermore, a seat-by-seat analysis by Enten reveals that Republicans currently have “more net pickup opportunities” in the House, with a “plus 12” advantage, unlike 2005 and 2017 when Democrats had significant net pickup advantages.
Enten’s conclusion is that “this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does either 2018 or 2006,” and he reminds viewers that “Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024.” He cautions against writing “Republican House’s political obituaries,” emphasizing that “Republicans are still very much in the game.”
In essence, Enten’s “atomic bomb” on Democrats is a data-driven warning that they are not in as strong a position as they were in previous cycles that led to significant gains, and that the 2026 midterms could be more favorable for Republicans than many might anticipate.
