The U.S. Supreme Court case about the Voting Rights Act could be the Republicans’ best chance to keep the House in 2026, and it’s putting some top Democratic leaders in a tough spot.
If the Supreme Court strikes down race-based districts, the GOP could gain nine or more seats in Congress, according to some estimates. That seems likely, since most of the conservative justices said they were against the Civil Rights era restriction during oral arguments two months ago.
“It’s potentially really important for 2026,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told the New York Post.
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 is what we’re talking about. It says that no law or map can deny someone the right to vote because of their race or color.
In practice, the law has been used to make congressional districts that favor Democrats, especially in states with a lot of Republicans and a lot of black people.
Kondik explained, “If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact. You could see several states in the South potentially eliminating Democratic districts in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee.”
Since 1938, the party that controls the White House has lost House seats in all but two elections. Because the GOP has such a small majority, this could mean they will lose power.
The Supreme Court’s ruling could completely change that situation.
If the Supreme Court completely gets rid of the Voting Rights Act’s race-based districts, Republicans could cut the number of seats that Democrats hold in the South in half, according to an analysis by Nate Cohn of the New York Times.
That includes nine pickups that are directly related to the end of Section 2.
But there are a lot of things we don’t know.
There are also some dangers. If they get rid of Voting Rights Act districts, red states could make moderate swing seats where Blue Dog Democrats could live, especially during a blue wave cycle.
“I personally am not putting a number on it because we don’t know when it’s coming. We don’t know what it’ll say. And we don’t necessarily know how states will respond,” Kondik said.
Ballotpedia says that there are about 30 districts where the majority or plurality of the population is black. It is hard to say what will happen as a result of the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais.
In theory, more than half of those districts in red states could be in danger.
The Republicans have a 220-213 majority in the House right now, but there are two empty seats for Democrats. That means that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can only lose three votes on partisan issues.
In order to avoid losing the midterm elections in 2026, President Trump has asked GOP-led states to pass rare mid-decade redistricting maps. Texas has been the best part of that effort. Republicans there passed new congressional maps that could give the GOP five more seats in the House.
Trump’s friends are also looking at other states, like Florida, to see if they can pick up seats there.
But in November, California voters approved a ballot measure that would change the state’s districts so that they would gain more Democratic seats and completely undo Texas’ changes.
Kondik observed, “The results so far have kind of been a wash from a partisan standpoint. I think the one way where Republicans really could come out of this with a much better overall house map is a quick and maximal [Voting Rights Act] decision.”
“Failing that, they may get a little bit of an edge out of redistricting, but probably not as big as they would have hoped,” Kondik added.
